In the spirit of the World Cup, it is halftime of 2026. Let’s check in on global equity markets:

Obviously South Korea and Taiwan jump off the page - they are dominated by a small number of large semiconductor companies, so it’s not a surprise they have ripped. Indonesia sticks out at the other end, a comedy of errors that represents the platonic ideal of an EM equity market gone wrong.

What is most surprising though is the US. What makes it so surprising is that the US has been exactly in the middle, 25th of the 50 countries we track, despite the tailwind of a historic retail feeding frenzy. Seven of the ten most active retail trading days of all time happened in June. The flood of activity has gotten particularly wacky when there is a dip to buy. The chart below shows the difference in the size of retail equity buying on down days versus up:

That chart shows equity purchases, but the real gangsters spice it up by using options to get leverage. June was far and away the most active retail traders have ever been in options markets, and half of those options expired the same day - meaning they were bets that the stock market was going up in the next few hours.

We remain neutral weight on the US, as the forces of speculation and excess liquidity continue to overwhelm the appalling valuation picture. However, we are watching these flows closely for signs of exhaustion, and are ready to act.